The latest data shows that in November 2022, domestic excavator sales increased by 2.74% year-on-year, achieving the first positive growth in 19 months, reflecting the gradual implementation of the "steady growth" policy of governments at all levels. With the further development of support policies for the infrastructure and real estate industries, and the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policies, people in the industry have begun to look forward to the spring of 2023. The sales volume of domestic excavators increased year-on-year Since the end of the third quarter, the sales of excavators have continued to improve. The China Construction Machinery Industry Association disclosed on the evening of December 7 that according to statistics from 26 excavator manufacturers, 23,680 excavators of various types will be sold in November 2022, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, of which 14,398 are domestic, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%; exports are 9282 Taiwan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%. It is the first time since March 2021 that domestic excavator sales have achieved positive growth in a single month, and 19 months have passed. Prior to this, the domestic market of excavators experienced a year of hot sales. From March 2020 to March 2021, the average sales growth rate was over 78%. In fact, domestic excavator sales have picked up since the third quarter of this year. In the third quarter, the year-on-year decline in overall domestic excavator sales narrowed sharply to about 25%, and in the second quarter, the overall year-on-year decline was about 50%, and the year-on-year decline in a single month in October was further narrowed to 10%. At the same time, boosted by the high boom in excavator exports, the growth rate of China's overall sales of excavator machinery (including exports and imports) in July this year has turned positive ahead of schedule. From the perspective of forward-looking indicators, since the end of the third quarter, the project start rate has increased significantly compared to before. According to the CCTV Finance and Economics Excavator Index, the average operating rate of construction machinery in my country in October was 64.07%, an increase of 2.23 percentage points compared with the average operating rate of 61.84% in the first three quarters. In September and October 2022, the operating hours of China's Komatsu excavators were 101 hours and 102.1 hours respectively, showing a continuous increase from the previous month. A related person from a leading construction machinery company said that although the outbreaks occurred frequently in various places in November, which had a certain impact on the start of the project in the short term, compared with the previous three quarters, the operating rate still increased. In recent months, the start of construction and sales of excavators have continued to improve, reflecting that the country's steady growth policy in the field of infrastructure has taken effect and is gradually being transmitted. On December 1, the fourth phase of the national emission standard for non-road mobile machinery (hereinafter referred to as "National IV") was implemented, which also boosted the sales of domestic excavators in a short period of time. The new "National IV" regulations mainly affect the sales of equipment. If a company purchases "National III" equipment before the implementation of the new regulations, it can continue to use it after December 1. In November, the "National III" and "National IV" two generations of products were sold on the same platform, and there was a price difference of about 15% between the two generations. A salesperson of a certain line of excavator brands told reporters that because the price is affordable and the performance has been tested for a long time, there were many customers who consulted the "National Three" equipment at that time. The inventory of various "National Three" equipment of the brand he sells is in short supply, and there has been a price increase to remove inventory. The export volume remains high In terms of excavator exports, the export of excavators in November was 9,282 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, and the growth rate has dropped from the overall 65% this year. The decline in growth rate may be related to the overall decline in the growth rate of foreign trade exports in November. At the same time, industry insiders also reminded that the export volume of excavators is still very impressive, and they have firm confidence in the future export situation of China's construction machinery. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday, in November, my country's exports (valued in US dollars) fell sharply by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year to -8.7%, of which high-tech products (down 23.7% year-on-year in the current month) and mechanical and electrical products (down 11.1% year-on-year in the current month) The year-on-year growth rate of exports in the month further dropped sharply by 16.6 and 10.7 percentage points respectively. Shenwan Hongyuan interpreted that the sharp drop in exports for the second consecutive month in November mainly reflected temporary supply shocks, while the slow fall in external demand was the secondary reason. If the recent prevention and control measures are optimized, and the intensity of the domestic epidemic does not rebound uncontrollably in the next year, then the recent supply shock phenomenon will be destined to be phased and temporary. In addition, the above-mentioned construction machinery company said that although the growth rate has declined slightly, it must be seen that the absolute value of excavator exports in November still exceeded 9,000 units, which is still at a high level within the year. From the perspective of enterprises, they still have firm confidence in the export situation of China's construction machinery next year. On the one hand, my country's construction machinery products are currently very competitive overseas; on the other hand, after years of construction, the company's overseas channels, R&D and other layouts have gradually improved. In 2023, we look forward to "the warmth of spring and the blossoming of flowers" By the end of the year, the report card for construction machinery in 2022 has basically been finalized. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from January to November 2022, 26 excavator manufacturers sold a total of 244,500 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%; of which 145,700 were domestic units, a year-on-year decrease of 43.7%; An increase of 64.9%. Domestic sales of excavators have accelerated since the third quarter, and the annual trend of export sales hitting new highs has basically been established. Looking forward to 2023, under the circumstances of the following three factors, industry insiders predict that the start of construction next spring will be relatively optimistic, which will drive the growth rate of excavator sales to continue to rise. First, there is strong demand for infrastructure construction. On December 6, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2023, and proposed to "focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", and made it clear that "continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy." Pacific Securities expects that the government's financial investment in infrastructure construction will not weaken in the short term. Second, demand for real estate is picking up. Recently, a series of real estate loosening policies have been launched one after another. Among them, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on November 28 that the adjustment and optimization measures for equity financing in the real estate industry were described as the "third arrow". So far, the real estate industry has initially formed a multi-dimensional financing support policy system such as credit, bond issuance, trust, pre-sale funds, and equity financing, which is expected to effectively support the start of construction in the real estate industry. Third, the epidemic prevention policy continues to be optimized. Recently, the "20 Measures" and the new "10 Measures" for epidemic prevention have been released successively. The implementation of scientific and accurate division of risk areas and "quick closure and quick release" of high-risk areas will greatly reduce the impact of the epidemic on the start of the project.

After construction machinery leaves the factory, it is generally stipulated that there is a running-in period of about 60 hours (some are called break-in period). Run-in period), which is stipulated by the manufacturing plant based on the technical characteristics of the construction machinery at the initial stage of use. The running-in period is to ensure the normal operation of construction machinery, reduce the failure rate and extend its service life main link. But at present, due to the lack of common sense of construction machinery use by some users or due to The construction period is tight, or you want to get benefits as soon as possible, but ignore the special technical requirements of the running-in period of the new machine. Some users even think that, anyway, the manufacturer has a warranty period, and the manufacturer is responsible for repairing the machine if it breaks down. Therefore, the machine will be overloaded for a long time during the running-in period, resulting in frequent failures in the early stage of the machine produced, which not only affects the normal application of the machine, shortens the service life of the machine, but Moreover, due to machine damage, the progress of the project was affected. Therefore, the running-in period of construction machinery The use and maintenance should be given full attention. Features of the break-in period: 1. Fast wear? Due to the influence of factors such as processing, assembly and adjustment of new machine parts, its friction The rubbing surface is rough, the contact area of the mating surface is small, and the pressure bearing state of the surface is uneven. machine in During operation, the concave and convex parts on the surface of the parts fit and rub against each other, grinding the fallen metal. Debris, as an abrasive, continues to participate in friction and accelerates the wear of the mating surfaces of parts. Therefore, it is easy to cause wear of parts (especially mating surfaces) during the running-in period, and the wear speed fast. At this time, if the work is overloaded, it may cause damage to the parts and premature period failure. 2. Poor lubrication? Due to the small fitting clearance of the newly assembled parts, and due to the original assembly and other factors. Therefore, it is difficult to ensure the uniformity of the fit gap, and the lubricating oil (grease) is not easy to form on the friction surface Uniform oil film to prevent wear. Thereby reducing the lubrication performance, resulting in early abnormal parts Often wear and tear. In severe cases, it will cause scratches or bites on the friction surface of the precision fit, resulting in malfunction occurs. 3. Loose The newly processed and assembled parts have deviations in geometric shape and matching dimensions. In the initial stage of application, due to alternating loads such as shock and vibration, as well as heat and deformation, etc. Influenced by other factors, coupled with excessive wear and tear, etc., it is easy to cause the parts that were originally fastened to break down. loose. 4. Leakage occurs Due to the looseness of parts, vibration and the influence of heat on the machine, there will be leakage on the sealing surface of the machine and pipe joints; some defects such as casting and processing are difficult to find during assembly and debugging, but due to the vibration during the operation , Impact action, this defect is exposed, expressed as leakage (seepage) oil (water). Therefore, leakage is prone to occur during the running-in period. 5. Many operating errors Due to insufficient understanding of the structure and performance of the machine (especially for new operators), it is easy to cause malfunctions or even mechanical accidents due to operational errors.

Recently, Bloomberg published an article saying that American machinery manufacturers should pay attention, saying that Chinese machinery and equipment are "eroding" Caterpillar's market share. Let me talk about Caterpillar first. Friends who know a little bit about construction machinery know how powerful this company is. It has a history of 100 years. Today's unmanned giant trucks have always been the benchmark for global machinery and equipment We have to admit that this company is really strong. It has been focusing on the industry for a hundred years and has never changed. During the peak period, the tunnel-digging, coal-digging and other machines you saw were all over the world, and their market share was almost eaten by them. Come to the data: From January to October this year, 26 domestic excavators sold 220,797 units, of which 89,457 were exported, a year-on-year increase of 67.3%, about 36,000 units According to Bloomberg, Chinese companies like Sany have pushed the machines to Europe, Latin America, the U.S. and Southeast Asia. U.S. media quoted the financial reports of Chinese companies, which have achieved double-digit growth overseas, and international revenue accounted for more than a quarter of the total revenue. Taking Sany as an example, overseas revenue accounted for 24.4% from January to September. In other words, in the recent fiery World Cup, the Lusail Stadium in the opening ceremony is a masterpiece of Zoomlion. Although the United States sees China's competition as a threat, it also reflects that Chinese manufacturing has indeed gone overseas, and the output of mid-to-high-end products is getting stronger and stronger. In order to gain a firm foothold in the world in the future, we must pay attention to the research and development of relevant aspects. I believe that Made in China will become Created in China and lead the wave of machinery.

According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturers by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 23,680 excavators of various types will be sold in November 2022, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, of which 14,398 are domestic, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%; exports are 9,282 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% . From January to November 2022, a total of 244,477 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%; of which 145,738 were domestic, a year-on-year decrease of 43.7%; 98,739 were exported, a year-on-year increase of 64.9%.

After grassroots investigation and market research, CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in November 2022 will be about 25,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%. In terms of different markets, the domestic market is estimated to sell 15,500 units, an increase of about 11% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the domestic market has returned to positive; the export market is estimated to sell 10,000 units, an increase of about 25% year-on-year. As a typical investment-dependent and cyclical industry, China's excavation machinery industry is facing many uncertainties such as cyclical market adjustments, the impact of the epidemic, intensified competition, rising prices of raw materials and bulk commodities, escalating emissions, and complex international trade relations. The deadline is approaching, the final sales period of the National Three Machines From December 1, 2022, all non-road mobile machinery produced, imported and sold below 560kW (including 560kW) and the diesel engines installed therein shall comply with the "National IV" emission standards. November is the last month for the sales of China National Sanji. The inventory level of OEMs will have a greater impact on market sales this month. It may be too early to say the inflection point In July 2022, China's excavator sales growth rate turned positive for the first time; in November 2022, the domestic market sales growth rate also turned positive, but this does not mean that the Chinese excavator market turning point has appeared. The switch of emission standards in the short term will directly affect the market sales in the past two months. We must face up to many hidden worries in the current industry: manufacturers' revenue and net profit have fallen sharply, various forms of price competition have intensified, and channel blood loss is obvious; end users are facing challenges such as fierce competition and difficulty in paying back. Do not take the market share as the first indicator to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of China's excavation machinery industry. There will be some deviations in market forecasts in the short term due to the inventory level and the overdraft of demand for new National IV machines. Transferred from Industry Development Research Network

On December 8, Soochow Securities released a research report on the machinery and equipment industry. The report pointed out that the sales volume of excavators in November was +16% year-on-year, and the domestic market is expected to recover. The specific contents of the report are as follows: In November, the sales volume of excavators increased by 16% year-on-year, and the domestic market turned positive and the industry is expected to pick In November 2022, the sales volume of the excavator industry will be 23,680 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, which is 25% lower than the previous CME forecast. Among them, the sales volume in the domestic market was 14,398 units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, which was lower than CME's previous expectation (+11%), and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27%, showing a significant marginal improvement in sales. The export sales volume in a single month was 9282 units, a year-on-year increase of 44%, maintaining a high-speed growth. The sales volume of the industry continued to turn positive in November, mainly due to (1) the switching of the National IV standard in December 2022, OEMs clearing the inventory of the National III, and the price of the National IV equipment is higher, and users purchase machines in advance, (2) The globalization logic of domestic manufacturers is fulfilled , exports continued to be strong. From January to November 2022, the cumulative sales volume of the excavator industry was 244,477 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. Among them, the sales volume in the domestic market was 145,742 units, a year-on-year decrease of 44%; the export sales volume was 98,735 units, a year-on-year increase of 65%, accounting for 40% of the total sales volume. As the base declines, the growth rate of the industry is expected to maintain positive growth, and internationalization will become a bright spot in the future. The domestic market is stabilizing, and globalization is entering a cashing period. The industry is expected to stabilize and recover in 2023